Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba498fb5615280a7c9db8c668f12bff58e5b6b265a347ccdcca404c11fa58875
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 474.41$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.72 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 27c | 392.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 27c | 392.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 72c | 384$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 338.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 242$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 228.52$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 57c | 195$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 49c | 188.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 74c | 163$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed No | 74c | 128$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 54.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.