Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cf7e722ca8d1f5758f7dcc0830516dc17772a387399f0d95aca5ab9184fa40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 4,151$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,862$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.47 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 1,101$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 16c | 589.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.9 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 77c | 500$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 24c | 293.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.1 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 272$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.29 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 77c | 196$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 77c | 146$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 64c | 120.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed No | 77c | 106$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 22c | 91.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed No | 77c | 83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…0156backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 31.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 80c | 24.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.