Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4ea4d106e09b218cf5516de2f729705a0a7edb7bfaf4e83467eac1cd24281a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 175.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 26c | 171.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 151.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 25c | 150.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 149.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 133.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 127.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 108.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 20c | 99.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 75c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 89.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 88.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 25c | 86.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 79.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 73.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 39c | 63.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 34c | 62.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 57.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 49.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 43c | 47.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…7d3fbacked Yes | 45c | 47.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…8894backed Yes | 28c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 44.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 55c | 40.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 37.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 32.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b86…22f1backed No | 79c | 28.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 22.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.