Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba56e9aa0e9deae650ecea3e961df96042645378b27a4283d9f28d925c0841fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 54c | 1,419$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.34 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 69c | 972.15$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.81 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 69c | 967.08$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.29 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 31c | 664.52$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.52 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 629.37$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 53c | 626.65$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.98 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 24c | 569$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.08 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 435.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.36 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefc…49babacked Yes | 31c | 402.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 65c | 301.03$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 31c | 197$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 70c | 185.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes | 31c | 178.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 69c | 178.39$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…6886backed No | 70c | 158.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…570cbacked No | 70c | 149.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 41c | 149$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…6de8backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…4655backed No | 70c | 124.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e54…fffdbacked No | 70c | 119.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 31c | 94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 90.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 25c | 80.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 19c | 70.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…928ebacked Yes | 78c | 59.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 36c | 58.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 57.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 52.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 47.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 47.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…96c1backed No | 23c | 43.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 40.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed No | 64c | 38.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 38c | 28.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…c0b2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.