Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Colin Sinclair
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba6bc94b85504b017bae4b39f77d312448cb7a11b30de43705af08c5605f4030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoki Nakagawaof Naoki Nakagawa, Colin Sinclair
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec28…8d7abacked Colin Sinclair | 50c | 635.85$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Colin Sinclair | 64c | 629.32$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Colin Sinclair | 44c | 589.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.04 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…9b39backed Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 516.92$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.98 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Naoki Nakagawa | 60c | 393.42$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…8893backed Naoki Nakagawa | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Naoki Nakagawa | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 254 | 37%94 W · 160 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Colin Sinclair | 38c | 111.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Colin Sinclair | 46c | 108.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Colin Sinclair | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 300 | 40%120 W · 180 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 199 | 41.7%83 W · 116 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | +17.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Naoki Nakagawa | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 64c | 52.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 641 | 47.7%306 W · 335 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Colin Sinclair | 41c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa432…5082backed Colin Sinclair | 43c | 29.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Naoki Nakagawa | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.