South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8908a0f2141f2f9a8e7c373264f29b0bcd1c80acf3d6157eb959c2e7655917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 4,618$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 52c | 3,849$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 2,080$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 1,223$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.32 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 52c | 299.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 297.67$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 52c | 293.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Under | 39c | 254.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.34 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 252.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 117 | 17.9%21 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 45c | 175.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 157.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 154.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 71c | 139.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 51c | 130.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 49c | 123.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 48c | 111$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 86.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Under | 32c | 78.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 63c | 74.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 63.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 63c | 59.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Over | 24c | 49.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…2252backed Under | 41c | 47.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 47.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…1f55backed Under | 50c | 47.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 47c | 41.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 41c | 39.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 50c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 62c | 31.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 50c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 46c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 48c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Under | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 44 | 84.1%37 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.