Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Qarabag beat FCSB?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab4dbefbc288fe7adcbbafd07c6ed6d4b238f4151c5c111b4204e1f849b955b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 63c | 190.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 43c | 60.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed Yes | 39c | 57.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c1…8a8fbacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…5cb4backed Yes | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…b909backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 55c | 41.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…071bbacked Yes | 43c | 40.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…cad3backed Yes | 43c | 40.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc0…caa3backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d2…10a9backed Yes | 43c | 34.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…ae73backed No | 56c | 34.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…fd2dbacked No | 57c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…d2debacked Yes | 43c | 33.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…25d8backed No | 56c | 26.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…fd5ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21f…42a7backed No | 57c | 25.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…8613backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…c7a0backed No | 63c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 55c | 20.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…e915backed No | 56c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cca…2e8abacked No | 56c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…04a2backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a9…9f4bbacked No | 57c | 17.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qarabag beat FCSB?this page
- Will FCSB beat Qarabag?Yes won
- Will the match between Qarabag and FCSB end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.