AI · resolved market
Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae0af592af14c76128127818fd3d8056637e8eb08274aabd38700e6e4a00835
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ff…c537backed Yes | 75c | 1,706$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 19c | 1,303$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.81 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…f3d0backed No | 9c | 699.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 427.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…38d3backed Yes | 75c | 273.9$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 7c | 199.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 189.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 72c | 116.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…523fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…e577backed Yes | 65c | 76.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…394ebacked Yes | 73c | 68.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d9…2c3abacked Yes | 72c | 62.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…e32dbacked No | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 25c | 46.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…c558backed Yes | 68c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 51c | 35.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…88a6backed Yes | 80c | 32.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…ae23backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5d…597ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 69c | 27.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…a3febacked No | 61c | 25.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked Yes | 79c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.