South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0b5488ca145d70b2b18647e5c456c2f3d605273a3ffa96bc362bc389d0fd13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 51c | 25,474$13,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,440.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 49c | 16,851$8,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,256.89 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 4,576$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +962.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 2,360$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.6 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.8 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,254$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 1,068$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +506.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 52c | 750$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 624.92$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.99 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 593.39$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.21 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 399.2$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 208.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Under | 50c | 201.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 146$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…b7bbbacked Over | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…b6b5backed Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…364cbacked Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…a044backed Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b15…91a3backed Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…2740backed Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 20.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.