NHL · resolved market
AHL: Utica Comets vs. Rochester Americans
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb530129ecac389eb9638193bd2c9cdb29633f46a105c9efade29cbefa2051c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utica Cometsof Utica Comets, Rochester Americans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Utica Comets | 45c | 365.1$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rochester Americans | 55c | 220.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Utica Comets | 45c | 208.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Utica Comets | 46c | 165$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rochester Americans | 55c | 129.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Rochester Americans | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…62bfbacked Rochester Americans | 53c | 108.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Rochester Americans | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rochester Americans | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Rochester Americans | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Utica Comets | 74c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Rochester Americans | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Rochester Americans | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.