Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Marko Topo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5c672660c0a91ce4dbfee24be3d0a45eb8374a8341c1e37a505ae466f90d76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vukicof Vukic, Topo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Vukic | 66c | 3,610$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Topo | 35c | 1,863$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.43 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vukic | 74c | 1,545$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Topo | 34c | 1,520$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.8 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Topo | 34c | 1,400$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Vukic | 68c | 1,224$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Topo | 21c | 1,101$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Vukic | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Topo | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vukic | 69c | 620.12$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Topo | 33c | 466.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Topo | 34c | 332.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.71 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vukic | 78c | 314.15$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Topo | 36c | 273$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Topo | 27c | 251.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Topo | 17c | 194.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Vukic | 68c | 160.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Vukic | 62c | 106.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Topo | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Topo | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Topo | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Vukic | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Vukic | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vukic | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Vukic | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Vukic | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.