Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb8f7cbf2f17b20ce7fd1f924f9b53680509f2b3d2a050881ff87e931bb2b4be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2801…da55backed Up | 0c | 9,537$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…6094backed Up | 0c | 7,860$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…5e36backed Up | 2c | 3,739$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…9e37backed Up | 20c | 3,346$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ef…cff5backed Down | 48c | 2,076$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Up | 7c | 1,113$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b450backed Up | 42c | 649.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fe48backed Down | 53c | 540.26$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431e…7c0ebacked Up | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 26c | 383.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Down | 66c | 378.11$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Down | 75c | 373.57$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Up | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 78c | 101.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…e4dabacked Up | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395e…34c0backed Up | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Down | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Down | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 55c | 96.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Down | 53c | 93.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…ae49backed Up | 26c | 83.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Up | 17c | 62.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 50c | 51.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 50c | 51.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked Up | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…1d3ebacked Up | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…0c45backed Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…771abacked Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1246backed Down | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…ff9abacked Up | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Down | 64c | 45.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Down | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa044…c407backed Up | 34c | 40.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Down | 76c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.