NFL · resolved market
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9ebd08fe1834e60ee5d40b0f5b564478de30519bc8dd6d6d023539a39cd51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 16,584$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 7,239$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,997$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…044cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…3736backed Yes | 2c | 3,495$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…131fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,023$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…bc01backed Yes | 2c | 2,766$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…f62ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,634$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,515$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe263…8ad6backed Yes | 2c | 2,512$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…9f1fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…73babacked Yes | 2c | 1,944$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…1e97backed Yes | 2c | 1,912$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5beb…eb12backed Yes | 1c | 1,819$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…ef57backed Yes | 2c | 1,801$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…2255backed Yes | 2c | 1,784$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…f838backed Yes | 2c | 1,759$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…7031backed Yes | 2c | 1,738$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…3effbacked Yes | 2c | 1,734$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…f903backed Yes | 2c | 1,590$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…6843backed Yes | 2c | 1,561$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…edc4backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…cb35backed Yes | 2c | 1,480$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…3b41backed Yes | 2c | 1,478$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…ec68backed Yes | 3c | 1,477$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…5882backed Yes | 2c | 1,413$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737b…2e72backed Yes | 2c | 1,341$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5804…eba4backed Yes | 2c | 1,318$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…6c5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,307$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…4569backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 1,273$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4614…cb50backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…0033backed Yes | 2c | 1,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0e…d916backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…8c39backed Yes | 2c | 956$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…0c7abacked Yes | 2c | 947$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…9a9dbacked Yes | 2c | 905$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f9fbbacked Yes | 2c | 839$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…6a18backed Yes | 2c | 789$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348e…c889backed Yes | 2c | 789$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…f330backed Yes | 2c | 734$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…6a5bbacked Yes | 2c | 709$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6f…d5d8backed Yes | 2c | 623$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…67d7backed Yes | 2c | 615$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…e368backed Yes | 2c | 609$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…8c78backed Yes | 2c | 577$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3987backed Yes | 2c | 573$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x144a…0328backed Yes | 2c | 564.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834c…0fe8backed Yes | 3c | 376.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Carson Beck be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Spencer Fano be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Taylen Green be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.