NFL · resolved market
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1786c149f32f75fa909fbfab4f7b273975b6da5b76ad6d43200f927a1690f1e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $233,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb21b…7fe1backed No | 0c | 136,157$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 1c | 6,002$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…c211backed No | 0c | 5,648$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed No | 1c | 3,039$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b78…324ebacked No | 1c | 2,577$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…7d93backed No | 1c | 2,537$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed No | 9c | 2,499$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.25 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 1c | 2,416$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,409$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ee…e9e3backed No | 1c | 2,094$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…9c73backed No | 1c | 1,890$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 4c | 1,856$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 1,752$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 1,224$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…bc58backed No | 4c | 1,020$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 855.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 7c | 561.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed No | 3c | 538$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…ff3cbacked No | 3c | 461.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 34c | 404.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +9.9wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 65c | 289.62$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 64c | 281.35$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 19c | 245.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 34c | 176.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…c98bbacked No | 7c | 174.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf917…480cbacked No | 9c | 166.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed Yes | 79c | 128$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 12c | 100.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 67c | 99.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Yes | 75c | 93.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +130%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2419…1514backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…6169backed No | 16c | 62.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed No | 44c | 33.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 40c | 26.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Carson Beck be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Dante Moore be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Francis Mauigoa be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Garrett Nussmeier be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Nico Iamaleava be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Rueben Bain Jr be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Spencer Fano be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will Taylen Green be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.