Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbee04229dc2bcd1c23e473abdd13e9c7e40f5d13edd4168424665319207d04e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes | 48c | 2,276$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 50c | 1,060$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.12 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 49c | 589$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 570$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 53c | 567.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 562.91$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.41 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 53c | 454.59$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 49c | 450$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 52c | 225$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 48c | 212.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 56c | 159.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 45c | 93.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…d31abacked Yes | 50c | 33.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will New York City FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.