Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc277b385f9444efd7c04bcaf23dcf66c62e0f3bffa593237c624acc85f995ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 455.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 13c | 438.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 368.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 350.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes | 13c | 290.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 258.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 198.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 27c | 193.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 159.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 11c | 129.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 122.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 22c | 95.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 13c | 79.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 21c | 78.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 66.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 60.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 27c | 57.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 54.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 54.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 34.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 31.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.