Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7de3d1d1a658f2879f022b19f8cc11ca51c308658ef4c47ce2467a44df3636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 665.67$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 531.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 64c | 392.68$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 338.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 237.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed No | 75c | 224.46$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 67c | 219.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 206.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 66c | 174.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 162.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 37c | 141.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 141.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 135.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 125.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 37c | 123.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 116.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 108.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 106.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 106.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 62c | 102.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 73.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 64.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 63c | 58.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 55.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 53.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 45.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 44.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 39.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 61c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 64c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.