Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de9ce487e77f165f00cbdb143e1b472e3dfc35140466b74c4426b8293a2a5cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 43c | 436.92$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 58c | 349.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 248.36$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 238.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 12c | 197.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 19c | 187.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 169$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 159.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 47c | 155.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 149.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 8c | 144.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 136.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…67b6backed Yes | 63c | 127.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 124.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 123.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 119.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 111.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 111.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 106.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 105.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 53c | 97.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 80.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 46c | 74.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 52c | 72.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 61c | 71.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 47c | 67.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 48c | 64.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 63.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 50c | 63.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 38c | 62.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 48c | 62.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 56c | 61.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 58.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 46c | 57.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 51.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 50c | 50.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 49.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 52c | 48.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 50c | 45.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 47c | 44.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 43.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 43.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 38.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 40c | 37.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2e96backed No | 51c | 37.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 69c | 30.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 54c | 27.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed No | 49c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 45c | 23.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…3026backed Yes | 73c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 56c | 19.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 76c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.