MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc34b4a0586e3f7e9e1ed286f94d8e0ed44830e56c277b3343324caae103d566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 7,213$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.24 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 2,326$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.03 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 2,256$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.69 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 2,150$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 1,481$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.14 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 1,439$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 779.55$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 379.05$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…38b1backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 304$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed San Diego Padres | 31c | 186$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 169.89$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 162.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 153.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 64.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.