Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc6766764569663f836c12e776f96d8e62b96601005b29fc768cdf054701b6c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Fernandez | 14c | 7,154$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.08 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Fernandez | 14c | 6,954$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.51 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Fernandez | 16c | 3,027$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.09 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Fernandez | 10c | 2,115$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Fernandez | 12c | 1,512$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.37 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fernandez | 11c | 1,419$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.51 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Fernandez | 14c | 1,350$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Fernandez | 15c | 1,242$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fernandez | 14c | 1,015$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…1208backed Fernandez | 14c | 929.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Fernandez | 15c | 890.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fernandez | 14c | 878.71$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Fernandez | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fernandez | 16c | 633.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Fernandez | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Fernandez | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fernandez | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fernandez | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fernandez | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fernandez | 10c | 448.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Fernandez | 15c | 320$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Fernandez | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Fernandez | 8c | 241$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Fernandez | 10c | 215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fernandez | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Fernandez | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Fernandez | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Fernandez | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fernandez | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fernandez | 12c | 106.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.