South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc70865b72e5cc38bdd1df490d7297f36d61f95f609a6d7018e27596c21ace1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf975…4354backed Yes | 79c | 5,063$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 23c | 4,605$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.4 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 21c | 2,850$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 21c | 2,613$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.46 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 23c | 2,123$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.05 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 79c | 1,911$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 77c | 1,072$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 9c | 936$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Yes | 76c | 509.39$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 22c | 500.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 77c | 450.4$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed No | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…655bbacked Yes | 78c | 412$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Yes | 75c | 400$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…6289backed Yes | 75c | 360$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 20c | 333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 21c | 234.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 8c | 228.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 80c | 206.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 75c | 143.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 24c | 142.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 77c | 137.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 78c | 131.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 19c | 127.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 77c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 77c | 108.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked No | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 22c | 105.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…e7d7backed Yes | 75c | 88.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…1132backed Yes | 78c | 86.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 74c | 79.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Yes | 77c | 73.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 78c | 66.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed No | 23c | 56.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Yes | 78c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…b3b5backed Yes | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2f42backed Yes | 75c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed7…8eb3backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Yes | 78c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Ceará SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-12-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.