Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc7630a51a424e1bf6335310299f6782357fbfa0e7b9ec9b0ddc70df2eff0241
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 59c | 30,000$17,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,300 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 41c | 29,928$12,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,270.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Yes | 41c | 1,228$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 1,191$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.31 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 24c | 946.13$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 58c | 854.99$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.1 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 13c | 720$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.5 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 42c | 528.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 11c | 368.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Yes | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Yes | 11c | 243.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…16dbbacked Yes | 42c | 194$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…638abacked No | 59c | 194$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 56c | 116$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…8fbabacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 62.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…2cbcbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…1473backed Yes | 42c | 34.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.