Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc81e051be25d75bc0745b66fc801e522effc9bd4c7c4e21cf115100bf8af071
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 663.38$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 220.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 18c | 133.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 25c | 131.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 125.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 125.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 80c | 124.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 123.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 99.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 66.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 22c | 60.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…8c1fbacked Yes | 25c | 59.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 30.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 75c | 28.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 65c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…e53cbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed No | 65c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.