Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c93798cc29f54ad026e2e5dea81d8c74fa4163d023f3175ee98ed52c6f5d961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 12c | 490.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 48c | 467.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 4c | 367.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 288.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 229.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 45c | 223.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 220.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 43c | 180.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 172.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 147.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 144.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 139.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 134$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 123.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 110.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 48c | 104.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 103.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 100.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 97.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 34c | 83.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 48c | 82.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 75.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 69c | 68.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…a64abacked Yes | 42c | 54.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 52.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 50.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 77c | 50.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 49.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 31c | 41.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 45c | 41.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 40.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 50c | 36.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 35.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 52c | 34.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 25.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 57c | 24.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c27…b565backed Yes | 76c | 23.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…8c7ebacked Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 78c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…1cafbacked Yes | 64c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.