Champions League · resolved market
Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc987a95b4b3ee687d51178b0c3d561e2f5448e00a7335614873377855a58249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb1d…2bd7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 18c | 6,004$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.69 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 80c | 4,106$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.9 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,735$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.09 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 48c | 3,705$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.25 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 850$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 18c | 479.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 5c | 369.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 10c | 312.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…9dd9backed Yes | 17c | 141$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0290…97c7backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…fabebacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d60…d6adbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…8862backed Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12?Yes won
- Will Celtic win on 2025-02-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.