Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Rapid Wien leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccfa2271956f2f2eab822486b02ab154967e7fdfe8b0a1e159e5e7b1c6e8442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 55c | 1,452$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.78 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked No | 43c | 721$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 57c | 616$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 46c | 576.11$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 43c | 347.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 38c | 338.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.32 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 37c | 297.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 67c | 211.9$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 63c | 149.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 33c | 124$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 68c | 84.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…4739backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 28.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Rapid Wien leading at halftime?this page
- SK Rapid Wien vs. Paide Linnameeskond: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.