Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 58°F or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf1c9be1fe55e485782480fd4d9cee1d03ee09c9138cc6029fc72a7548b336d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 47c | 330.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.19 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 63c | 282.2$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 276.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 51c | 252.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 181$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 33c | 168.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 114.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 71c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…f2b1backed No | 58c | 108.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 79.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 79c | 78.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 27c | 71.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 67c | 67.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 60.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 70c | 59.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 37c | 47.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 42.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 77c | 41.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 67c | 31.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 73c | 29.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 28.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 52c | 26.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 70c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 77c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f39…1617backed Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 58°F or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.