Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon vs. Michigan State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd34c661f5ee266793b1ddb06877f6eea98232247f7394994c83c0501a121cf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Oregon, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Oregon | 30c | 13,860$4,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.46 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed Oregon | 30c | 11,830$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.2 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Michigan State | 69c | 10,201$7,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,132.39 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Michigan State | 72c | 3,680$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.36 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Michigan State | 73c | 2,018$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.48 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oregon | 27c | 862.37$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.7 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Michigan State | 73c | 749.01$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.23 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Michigan State | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Michigan State | 74c | 134.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Oregon | 27c | 107.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Oregon | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Michigan State | 72c | 75.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Michigan State | 76c | 67.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Oregon | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Oregon | 29c | 41.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…3aa3backed Oregon | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Michigan State | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…50c5backed Michigan State | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.