La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd39b9db19b249f92521e0825bc7e522eb92a1aad3893ccd8183f652149eaaca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 53c | 7,068$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.66 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 4,475$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.73 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 58c | 4,383$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.69 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 1,524$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.79 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 383.38$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.89 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 11c | 306.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 57c | 284.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 46c | 219.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 161.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 65c | 135.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 125$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 32c | 107.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…9b27backed Over | 38c | 84.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 169 | 62.1%105 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 43c | 61.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 57c | 58.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Under | 58c | 56.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 46c | 52.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed Under | 44c | 49.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 48.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 47.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 50c | 44.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 41.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…614abacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 56c | 35.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 53c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5Under won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 3.5Under won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol B won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.