Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd4986ea6457350686c4ea538e932a39c38702e6f38fa1ddc98cb9648cdc60eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 785.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 567.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 567.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 7c | 538.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 6c | 399.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 320.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 319.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 172.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 168.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 68c | 157.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 8c | 147.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 140.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 130.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 14c | 105.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 17c | 99.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 96.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 96.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 96.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 25c | 93.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 12c | 92.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 25c | 58.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 36c | 38.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 39c | 35.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.