Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a3f6af106bbaf48fb2cfebf87a99a3ae43287713ce6261aafa13fb6db711e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 73c | 508.36$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.59 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 458.34$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 334.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 26c | 324.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 67c | 220.7$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 177.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 155.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 151.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 151.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 148.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 134.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 129.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 123.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 33c | 122.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 111.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 103.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 86.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 12c | 85.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 84.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 75.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 17c | 70.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 68.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 65.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 33c | 64.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 64c | 61.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 59.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 64c | 53.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…afafbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 32c | 48.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 67c | 44.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 36.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 35.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 36c | 33.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 34c | 31.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4476backed No | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 72c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 67c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.