Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcee009055b9f24e174026e14b5d25e40035d7b8d68eec8caa4e7cb975629798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 35c | 599.95$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 536.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 521.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.09 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 455.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 395.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 384.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 368.65$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 15c | 367$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.76 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 74c | 350.72$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 23c | 326.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.14 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 37c | 274.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 51c | 262.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 229.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 9c | 225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 218.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 206.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 180.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 63c | 174.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 38c | 158.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 157.66$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 12c | 155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 66c | 153.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 16c | 150.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 146.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 68c | 146.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 63c | 142.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 137.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 132.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 67c | 125.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 10c | 118.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…5313backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 96.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 95.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 42c | 89.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 66c | 82.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 30c | 73.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 22c | 68.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed Yes | 66c | 65.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 41c | 56.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 52.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 51.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 47.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 47c | 47.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 41.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 75c | 39.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 64c | 37.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 31c | 34.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 65c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 17.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…0a6fbacked No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.