Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5f96eaf0e2fcd839ee24c5e323c44d523a26275af83c6f2cdabbfdc38b4e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 70c | 2,669$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.91 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 43c | 1,777$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.05 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 47c | 1,160$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.31 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 13c | 1,129$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.46 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 10c | 808.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.37 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…fa33backed No | 76c | 524.68$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 522.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.21 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No | 22c | 448.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No | 47c | 436.73$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…6519backed Yes | 61c | 183.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…4955backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…e90abacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…0c04backed Yes | 60c | 44.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…809dbacked No | 60c | 41.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf783…9037backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…2edabacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?No won
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.