Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80addbe2f20835aa9d252b7273f783b7a99879ee3aef2bfa3608dbc9058b2478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…4908backed Yes | 73c | 142,399$103,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,700.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 27c | 64,207$17,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,634.52 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 27c | 40,924$11,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,874.52 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 27c | 22,000$5,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,060 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 32c | 10,000$3,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,802.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 34c | 7,486$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,975.25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 69c | 4,806$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 31c | 4,401$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.86 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 56c | 3,448$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 27c | 2,600$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.99 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 27c | 2,008$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 67c | 1,741$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 52c | 1,610$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.14 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,605$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 73c | 1,369$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.59 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 41c | 897.02$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…e860backed Yes | 67c | 891.85$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 30c | 879.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 42c | 753$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.6 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 18c | 661.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 24c | 612.96$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.85 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 76c | 612.96$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.85 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 39c | 520$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…71dabacked Yes | 77c | 476.52$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 76c | 422.5$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.45 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…cf2bbacked Yes | 32c | 310.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 69c | 293.74$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.68 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 35c | 288.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.03 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 46c | 261.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 223 | 73.1%163 W · 60 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 260$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 72c | 256.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931b…cb60backed Yes | 73c | 248.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 235.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 65c | 227$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 64cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a9f5backed Yes | 70c | 213.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…8f76backed Yes | 49c | 204.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 32c | 175$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 63c | 153.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…8864backed Yes | 70c | 143.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Yes | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 18c | 104.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 35c | 85.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…2b45backed Yes | 66c | 84.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Yes | 76c | 75.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9e8fbacked Yes | 71c | 69.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…db33backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…1682backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 67c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…c8babacked Yes | 68c | 47.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…3beebacked Yes | 73c | 45.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…1922backed Yes | 70c | 43.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Yes | 71c | 36.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…d4a4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…0c04backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…ab1fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…7dc3backed Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?No won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.