Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdad0fbaa1ee5436c0385a6189167d567ebbc23644f7cfc4209f31e11985472a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 70c | 442.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.07 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over 2.5 | 30c | 423.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.33 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Under 2.5 | 73c | 274.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 27c | 182.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over 2.5 | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over 2.5 | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under 2.5 | 74c | 46.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Over 2.5 | 30c | 43.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…218abacked Over 2.5 | 30c | 40.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider won
- Roland Garros WTA: Completed Match: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana ShnaiderYes won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs ShnaiderSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)Shnaider won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.