TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shnaiderof Sabalenka, Shnaider
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed Shnaider31c15,015$4,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,368.914,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Sabalenka69c7,655$5,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,281.9836145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc181…6e97backed Sabalenka69c7,173$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.215845.6%72 W · 86 L-12.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Shnaider35c5,608$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.195554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Shnaider36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.9618047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Shnaider35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9768935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Sabalenka69c2,903$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0041,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Shnaider34c2,000$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.9729146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Sabalenka56c1,973$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.1433442.5%142 W · 192 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b43…0f61backed Sabalenka65c1,927$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.691330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Shnaider31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.943743.7%191 W · 246 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…6679backed Sabalenka66c1,524$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Shnaider34c1,000$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.781,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Sabalenka66c999.99$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9954138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Shnaider15c980.93$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.661,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Sabalenka80c884.16$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.657660.5%46 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…98d9backed Sabalenka69c786.65$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.792556%14 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Sabalenka65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024259.9%145 W · 97 L-12.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Sabalenka67c746.1$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8994068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked Sabalenka66c742.42$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Shnaider33c730.2$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.337,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Shnaider44c714.73$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.742,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shnaider29c648.1$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.39,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Sabalenka68c610.77$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.222050%10 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Sabalenka70c600$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203560%21 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Sabalenka64c542.82$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501650%8 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Shnaider32c503.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.4242341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Sabalenka64c475.95$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.613740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider31c471.71$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.267,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Shnaider29c466.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.5673748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Shnaider32c466.3$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.31,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc905…850bbacked Sabalenka67c462.69$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31035755.5%198 W · 159 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Shnaider31c443.71$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.1634047.4%161 W · 179 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Shnaider34c437.27$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0957842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Shnaider12c404.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.6528947.8%138 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Sabalenka64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561833.3%6 W · 12 L-5.4wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa0a2…8613backed Sabalenka58c369.93$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.756550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Sabalenka65c338.55$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0665157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc88…87adbacked Sabalenka65c329.27$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.41250%6 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Sabalenka52c318.77$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6914752.4%77 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Sabalenka69c318.23$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2181936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Sabalenka67c311.94$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20935730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe11…5e3dbacked Sabalenka65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22c7…d814backed Sabalenka65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040554.1%219 W · 186 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Sabalenka64c300.69$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4485250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Shnaider36c299.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.992,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Sabalenka67c298.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9738033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Shnaider34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1273350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Sabalenka67c291.04$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19512754.3%69 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…13f4backed Sabalenka71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014851.4%76 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5a…9f70backed Shnaider30c280$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19635641.3%147 W · 209 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa324…eae0backed Sabalenka67c274.78$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.12236.4%8 W · 14 L-5.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-45.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Sabalenka64c272.19$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.255241.3%228 W · 324 L-2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Sabalenka67c258.97$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5135360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Sabalenka65c238.46$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1554944.9%22 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe22…50d6backed Sabalenka64c220.13$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.882259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Sabalenka67c217.61$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0384857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Shnaider53c200.65$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.311,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa706…4b9ebacked Sabalenka70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Sabalenka67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13424055%132 W · 108 L-15.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab3…d47cbacked Shnaider20c199.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15911143.2%48 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Shnaider32c194.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.014926.5%13 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x211f…81abbacked Sabalenka64c153.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Sabalenka64c152.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4633558.5%196 W · 139 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Sabalenka75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.562952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Sabalenka64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9689850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Sabalenka64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Shnaider34c149.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4983447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Sabalenka71c148.25$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2626555.8%148 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34b8…780ebacked Sabalenka67c148.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004257.1%24 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe200…5886backed Sabalenka69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Sabalenka74c136.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.374,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Shnaider16c132.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.69631.3%30 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Shnaider35c125$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1358745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Sabalenka67c117.91$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7915837.3%59 W · 99 L-19.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Shnaider50c115$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.59051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Shnaider53c114$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5884640%338 W · 508 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka67c111.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7538951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Sabalenka67c109.45$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3317859%105 W · 73 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Sabalenka68c99.97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Sabalenka66c94.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4252844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Sabalenka65c92.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Sabalenka64c90.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8543242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Shnaider32c90.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4348842%205 W · 283 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…eb44backed Sabalenka64c81.25$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210348.5%50 W · 53 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…8948backed Sabalenka62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62030%6 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3af…6da8backed Sabalenka66c78.91$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.084353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Shnaider34c75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.656129.5%18 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Sabalenka69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5094255.8%526 W · 416 L+19.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Shnaider53c64.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.152,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…c2d0backed Sabalenka64c62.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012462.1%77 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe676…46e0backed Sabalenka64c61.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Shnaider32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.81,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Shnaider30c59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.37,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed Sabalenka68c54.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdecb…e058backed Sabalenka69c50.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.735759.6%34 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…f4ccbacked Sabalenka64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x971f…fbc8backed Sabalenka64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e4…c62abacked Shnaider33c45.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.494652.2%24 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+39.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Sabalenka70c44.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.744233.3%14 W · 28 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.