TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff26…a5dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
161
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT9443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Endless Journey (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Play-Inbacked Inner Circle Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.95
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs K27 - Map 3 Winnerbacked K27 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.6
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs SPARTA (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group Cbacked SPARTA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.95
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.37
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.35
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG - Map 2 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.48
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.99
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs NIP (BO3) - RES Showdown Europe Playoffsbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+150.3%+$300.63
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked Alliance · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$74.58
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+186.7%+$513.96
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winnerbacked Alliance · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$177
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffsbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$181.22
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stagebacked EYEBALLERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
Counter-Strike: Team Aunkere vs Team shoke (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Playoffsbacked Team shoke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+121.5%+$122.96
Counter-Strike: Team StRoGo vs Team OverDrive (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group Abacked Team StRoGo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+143.7%+$186.81
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffsbacked Acend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,284.59
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,097Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,096.8
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$653
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$701Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$597.22
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winnerbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$306.32
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$979Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$979.4
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,019.93
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+245.4%+$741.5
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT3633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$85.66
France vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$189.24
Spread: France (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.24
Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.08
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$502.89
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$257.14
Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.61
England vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.57
England vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.59
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.45
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)backed Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$185
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$233.96
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.14
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked South Africa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.41
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$455.01
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$714.31
Spread: England (-1.5)backed Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.8
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$535.59
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+169.8%+$424.54
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmobacked Ane Mintegi Del Olmo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.32
Set 2 Winner: Pridankina vs Martynovbacked Martynov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.27
Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs August Holmgrenbacked August Holmgren · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.26
Cary: Timo Legout vs Edward Winterbacked Edward Winter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.8
Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+107.1%+$157.93
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5)backed Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Wimbledon ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Alexander Bublikbacked Thanasi Kokkinakis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatekbacked Taylor Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikatabacked Rinky Hijikata · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.3
Wimbledon WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimovabacked Kamilla Rakhimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$244.74
Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.37
Troyes: Lorenzo Giustino vs Svyatoslav Gulinbacked Lorenzo Giustino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+97.4%+$224.22
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Taggerbacked Anastasia Zakharova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$278.8
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$480.18
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrellbacked Ann Li · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$363.84
Set 1 Winner: Shnaider vs Chwalinskabacked Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.76
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Risticbacked Mia Ristic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.24
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)backed Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$218
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+273.2%+$510.95
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+173.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$226
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+239.3%+$227.32
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+245.8%+$245.84
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+308.3%+$302.12
All 4 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.41
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+90.3%+$175.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.