TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof 1WIN, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked 1WIN41c5,480$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.6292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed 1WIN46c3,734$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.998361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1WIN53c3,589$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.491,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e35…2614backed Virtus.pro62c2,050$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.25735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked 1WIN40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80043951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Virtus.pro36c1,919$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.617851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed 1WIN74c1,608$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.1411243.8%49 W · 63 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Virtus.pro56c1,593$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.23,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Virtus.pro58c1,555$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.7528549.5%141 W · 144 L+1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Virtus.pro73c1,274$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.7533553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Virtus.pro55c1,250$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.254,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Virtus.pro50c1,090$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54530348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed 1WIN1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed 1WIN46c944.14$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.3137145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed Virtus.pro63c794.68$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.682853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Virtus.pro54c740.19$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.191,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Virtus.pro56c739.85$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.119652%102 W · 94 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Virtus.pro58c720.85$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.0463541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Virtus.pro57c712.37$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.329443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 1WIN32c626.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.052,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4309…03a6backed Virtus.pro55c615.7$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.071747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro26c587.14$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.485,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Virtus.pro58c564.77$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.362248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Virtus.pro57c561.31$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3919443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked 1WIN42c560$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.634943%150 W · 199 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed Virtus.pro79c523.18$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1814749.7%73 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb87…eb45backed Virtus.pro52c514.66$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9810142.6%43 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro26c493$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.827,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed Virtus.pro54c465.94$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.334944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed Virtus.pro34c376.96$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.611838.1%45 W · 73 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Virtus.pro56c375.75$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.141,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 1WIN29c374.38$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.365,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked 1WIN51c366.22$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6539772.5%288 W · 109 L+38.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8847…fc98backed Virtus.pro54c302.16$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9924840.7%101 W · 147 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed 1WIN50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506354%34 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked 1WIN43c266.64$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.381,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro53c253.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.124,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Virtus.pro45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.537557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc8…8f95backed 1WIN11c241.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked 1WIN52c221.15$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9881751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Virtus.pro71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5818432.6%60 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed Virtus.pro71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd241…6c35backed Virtus.pro71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 1WIN50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.543,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked 1WIN6c199.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked Virtus.pro63c199.62$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8650358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Virtus.pro30c193$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8445754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked 1WIN40c186.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed 1WIN60c183.77$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106457.8%37 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed 1WIN57c178.26$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2710437.5%39 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked 1WIN36c175.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.331,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Virtus.pro57c173.28$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7141260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ba…2404backed Virtus.pro54c170.74$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7421856%122 W · 96 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro61c163.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.264,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1c…8273backed Virtus.pro62c162.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.54856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Virtus.pro51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.589248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Virtus.pro69c145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.952,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Virtus.pro56c145$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.92,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa0…e78abacked 1WIN69c144.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.993842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked 1WIN69c144.14$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.361,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf120…ce3cbacked Virtus.pro57c140.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.359145.1%41 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…c533backed 1WIN67c126.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6822256.8%126 W · 96 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e82…4cfbbacked 1WIN46c125.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.524240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Virtus.pro57c123.32$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9440639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 1WIN48c123.03$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.84,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed 1WIN36c115$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3528651%146 W · 140 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c8…a25cbacked Virtus.pro74c105$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.556048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed 1WIN44c102.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4516720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed 1WIN18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed 1WIN38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830939.2%121 W · 188 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked 1WIN46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4619150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6f…8063backed 1WIN26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267132.4%23 W · 48 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Virtus.pro57c97.25$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.352,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Virtus.pro69c96.17$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed 1WIN39c94.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked Virtus.pro54c94.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.278537.6%32 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed 1WIN20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Virtus.pro63c88.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8910457.7%60 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d6…c414backed Virtus.pro62c88.71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Virtus.pro62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6522654.9%124 W · 102 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked 1WIN42c78.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322037.3%82 W · 138 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7160…cce2backed Virtus.pro62c74.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.265253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked 1WIN41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030638.9%119 W · 187 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Virtus.pro55c72.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.531,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Virtus.pro51c69.91$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.122,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c52…9eaebacked Virtus.pro71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.438332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked Virtus.pro71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.438240.2%33 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 1WIN30c55.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.862,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf7…6bcebacked 1WIN29c51.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Virtus.pro71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531328.4%89 W · 224 L-21.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed 1WIN39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.528844.1%127 W · 161 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Virtus.pro39c49.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4957641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d28…ad7cbacked 1WIN59c49.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.347138%27 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9b…bc2fbacked 1WIN61c49.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307564%48 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 1WIN42c45.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.952,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 1WIN47c43.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.112,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Virtus.pro60c43.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.251,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed 1WIN62c43.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.896543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Virtus.pro69c43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.152,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca2…0beabacked Virtus.pro74c40.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.682759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.