MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ca96dc25be66d320d1c4727513596fb75e9cfe4cbd42db4740cad56f43c7d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 16,450$8,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,117.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 13,942$7,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,528.42 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 5,475$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 4,072$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 2,121$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 53c | 697.07$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.45 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 47c | 696$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 14c | 617$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 55c | 455.82$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 55c | 338$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 241.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 55c | 219$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Over | 45c | 200.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 41c | 192.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 181.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 55c | 181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 54c | 171.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 38c | 170.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 55c | 139.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…a5ddbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 41c | 107.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 55c | 97.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 97.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 55c | 67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…7945backed Over | 55c | 64.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 51c | 62.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f864backed Over | 70c | 57.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Over | 41c | 46.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 58c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 42c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x337a…b913backed Over | 55c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 54c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.