MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31742def40478f31e6e829140ffdb68a4c276bad2f4e2c78242018d962189f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 14,302$7,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,329.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 9,322$4,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 5,415$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a6…7a0abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 573.96$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.72 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 436$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 403.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 400$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 221.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 208.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 108.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 89.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 56.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 50.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 48.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 30.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.