MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cec9e0b94903844d9026810ab400797d00632820459872fb696925c12e4a605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 15,306$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 12,283$6,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,987.33 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 4,625$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.15 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.56 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 3,826$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.31 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 1,935$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.63 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,613$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.86 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,408$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.84 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 1,008$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.06 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 960.58$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.08 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 830$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.4 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 824$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.28 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 669.28$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 638.15$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.36 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…b7abbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 4c | 520$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 398.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 370.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.13 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 342.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 326.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 261.83$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 230$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 202.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 25c | 177.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 118.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 84.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 66.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 55.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 49.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 45.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 43.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…09c5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…cc70backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 36.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 33.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 30.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 28.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.