TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Inner Circle Esports, Acend
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$323,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d4f…e5f3backed Inner Circle Esports69c38,859$26,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,228.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Acend31c36,630$11,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,332.417951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Acend22c26,603$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,800.0812627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Inner Circle Esports67c12,801$8,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.3292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Acend37c11,878$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.82,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed Inner Circle Esports68c10,812$7,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.710359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Inner Circle Esports67c9,936$6,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,278.9938358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Acend32c9,375$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Inner Circle Esports71c8,713$6,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,562.2263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Inner Circle Esports70c7,826$5,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.995,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Acend34c6,693$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.542,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e387backed Inner Circle Esports62c6,222$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.551190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.36per pick55cpaid+63.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Acend32c6,157$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.7484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports61c5,314$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.691,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf7…9907backed Acend28c5,189$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.22240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Acend34c4,430$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.1866851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…50e2backed Inner Circle Esports53c4,304$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Inner Circle Esports80c3,919$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.1160853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Acend39c3,895$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.335,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Inner Circle Esports55c3,870$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.491,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Inner Circle Esports58c3,859$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.882548%12 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Acend23c3,748$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.8440137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc92…649dbacked Acend14c3,691$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5311838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Acend44c2,920$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.9437440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Acend19c2,830$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.931,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed Acend20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Acend31c2,497$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7673,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Acend36c2,453$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.0475438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Inner Circle Esports70c2,279$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.5739157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Acend28c2,160$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.6255941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Acend31c2,100$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Acend1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Inner Circle Esports53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Acend32c1,990$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.7912118.2%22 W · 99 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Acend35c1,963$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.2288330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Inner Circle Esports70c1,958$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.531,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Acend32c1,841$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.0438841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Inner Circle Esports57c1,803$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77218759.4%111 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Acend38c1,800$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.892,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a6…dff7backed Acend29c1,695$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked Acend31c1,694$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.328336.1%30 W · 53 L-8.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed Inner Circle Esports60c1,640$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.136457.8%37 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132f…453bbacked Acend30c1,612$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Acend32c1,594$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.463038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Acend32c1,550$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.9938052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Inner Circle Esports68c1,550$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.951844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Inner Circle Esports51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.9921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Inner Circle Esports69c1,488$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.4711843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Acend31c1,425$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.951,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Inner Circle Esports64c1,417$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2512348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Acend23c1,253$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.912,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Inner Circle Esports68c1,250$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Acend47c1,245$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.821947.5%104 W · 115 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Acend30c1,221$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.913,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Acend37c1,210$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.153,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Acend29c1,196$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.282,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Acend34c1,186$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.912,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Acend29c1,145$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.1733627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Acend33c1,131$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4194645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Acend33c1,080$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35538835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Inner Circle Esports57c1,050$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.2147053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb12…6a81backed Inner Circle Esports68c1,048$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.788548.2%41 W · 44 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Acend33c1,010$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.2310441.3%43 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Acend30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Inner Circle Esports50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50013454.5%73 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Acend34c965.37$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.272,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Inner Circle Esports70c862.47$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.472,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Acend26c846.04$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.884,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7365…9589backed Inner Circle Esports63c839.91$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7129455.8%164 W · 130 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Inner Circle Esports77c823.38$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6466446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Acend46c820.67$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.221,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x307a…d612backed Acend29c818.82$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.463046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Acend38c796.58$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008053.8%43 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Acend34c782.36$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.361,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle Esports58c758.86$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.594,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Inner Circle Esports47c720.12$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.6720242.1%85 W · 117 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Acend31c688.28$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Acend21c685$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14160%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Acend32c651.49$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.591,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Inner Circle Esports69c642.46$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.7189248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Inner Circle Esports70c631.1$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.0952456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Acend29c610$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7258745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25fa…bdd0backed Inner Circle Esports69c592.58$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.311855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Inner Circle Esports70c582$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.623949%117 W · 122 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Inner Circle Esports71c571.42$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7159755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x628d…e642backed Acend42c528.23$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked Acend48c517.46$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7827848.6%135 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Acend19c511.05$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Inner Circle Esports70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15026155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d3…c92fbacked Inner Circle Esports70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd5…28f2backed Inner Circle Esports70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503050%15 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Inner Circle Esports66c499.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Inner Circle Esports69c499.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15514650.7%74 W · 72 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Inner Circle Esports65c497.49$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.141,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3355…dd2fbacked Acend29c485$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.051643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Acend36c483.52$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5375833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Acend28c482$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.892,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56af…3065backed Acend31c471.23$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.085820.7%12 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked Acend19c449.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3766034.1%225 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e17…9d3cbacked Acend49c442.26$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.716442.2%27 W · 37 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.