TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof FaZe, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked BetBoom Team10c32,636$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.4632348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FaZe48c21,892$10,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,443.8733343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed BetBoom Team54c11,000$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.389550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked BetBoom Team50c9,565$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,778.8222129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab6a…2978backed BetBoom Team51c8,900$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5391741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2526…218ebacked FaZe66c8,639$5,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.654973.5%36 W · 13 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed FaZe63c7,329$4,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.3936555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed FaZe71c4,693$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.137065.7%46 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe53c4,682$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.5481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked BetBoom Team8c4,588$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.277617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked FaZe47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FaZe50c3,755$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.942,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed FaZe48c3,374$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.5924544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked BetBoom Team34c3,200$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0881,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BetBoom Team2c3,066$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FaZe47c2,443$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.8721055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FaZe47c2,287$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.3961034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked BetBoom Team32c2,152$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7763157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed FaZe49c2,106$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.266450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed BetBoom Team53c2,067$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed BetBoom Team25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed BetBoom Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked BetBoom Team51c1,849$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.9829046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed BetBoom Team51c1,817$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.88246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FaZe48c1,568$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.4338358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked BetBoom Team51c1,513$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.4875245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team39c1,500$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.942,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed FaZe66c1,410$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.0912571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc28f…6193backed BetBoom Team52c1,391$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.4810956.9%62 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked BetBoom Team14c1,280$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.263930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked BetBoom Team42c1,195$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked FaZe76c1,193$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.1738454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked FaZe47c1,162$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.732542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FaZe46c1,125$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.52,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed BetBoom Team3c1,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3538312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team25c1,063$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.484,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed BetBoom Team10c1,047$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7119947.2%94 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a7…dc41backed FaZe48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.67580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6c…53e5backed BetBoom Team53c1,042$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FaZe48c1,025$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.7548948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BetBoom Team52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FaZe77c1,000$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.112,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked BetBoom Team23c999.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.0552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed BetBoom Team51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51015838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked FaZe65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9918860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed BetBoom Team51c999.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9913360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed FaZe50c960.22$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.499023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BetBoom Team53c924.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0289…cb50backed BetBoom Team52c848.12$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.023647.2%17 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked BetBoom Team54c834.82$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.2319546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8112…1e6fbacked BetBoom Team53c832.11$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.022128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed BetBoom Team52c820.15$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.4815244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team33c806.01$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.255,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb819…cc67backed BetBoom Team17c743.92$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13024155.6%134 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked BetBoom Team31c739.97$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3917250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd4…0c98backed FaZe70c714.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.47666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2c…f0d6backed FaZe61c620.73$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.735261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed FaZe61c620.4$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2516542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed FaZe68c603.17$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0117759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed BetBoom Team35c582.78$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.411,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed BetBoom Team27c568$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.369748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed BetBoom Team54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010658.5%62 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed BetBoom Team54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6727…231dbacked FaZe47c550$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6712…a95bbacked FaZe48c505.63$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.9313938.1%53 W · 86 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked BetBoom Team19c503.75$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2722729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb5…98f8backed FaZe75c500$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-66.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked BetBoom Team29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14514247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed FaZe48c499.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.991,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked BetBoom Team27c487.58$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1318947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed FaZe65c464.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.3211558.3%67 W · 48 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8084…f4a3backed BetBoom Team24c459.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103727%10 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FaZe59c449.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.283,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team15c439.42$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.812,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b9…5699backed BetBoom Team35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked FaZe57c423.49$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.1719443.3%84 W · 110 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed BetBoom Team35c423.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked FaZe63c420.5$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5835466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed FaZe75c420.2$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2920156.7%114 W · 87 L-0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe7…121bbacked BetBoom Team30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015655.1%86 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked FaZe47c394.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3425651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fd6…9d99backed FaZe47c391.32$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.43842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc644…07bbbacked BetBoom Team52c390$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.84151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FaZe80c384.04$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.261,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked BetBoom Team32c378.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110457.7%60 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed FaZe48c360$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.211960.5%72 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed FaZe60c331.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.898361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed FaZe56c330$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.081,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked FaZe75c322$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.12,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed BetBoom Team31c318.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014041.4%58 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed BetBoom Team34c300.54$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.185149%25 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked BetBoom Team30c298.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9018647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed BetBoom Team52c296.05$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9877351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc57…1d94backed BetBoom Team34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked BetBoom Team40c284.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.379443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BetBoom Team51c284.39$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.041,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x416b…61f4backed BetBoom Team34c278.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FaZe71c275$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.054,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed BetBoom Team40c274.29$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.413836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.