TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof PortlandFire, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$392,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$405,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed PortlandFire48c37,057$17,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,771.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Washington Mystics52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,399.996735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked PortlandFire33c28,363$9,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,400.6610340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics39c14,178$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,689.4550646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Washington Mystics66c11,397$7,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.356851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Washington Mystics48c10,768$5,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,571.86988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick55cpaid+69.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire57c9,472$5,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,441.691,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire56c9,412$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,250.7799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Washington Mystics61c9,119$5,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.26977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Washington Mystics69c6,074$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.911478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+31.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Washington Mystics77c5,805$4,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.2938645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed PortlandFire54c5,635$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,030.5817656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked PortlandFire43c5,363$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.736750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Washington Mystics61c4,775$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.8412165.3%79 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x55fd…b51abacked PortlandFire53c4,738$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed PortlandFire34c4,444$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.961560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Washington Mystics67c3,486$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.026467.2%43 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f5d…80a3backed Washington Mystics45c3,460$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.3450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PortlandFire34c3,323$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.7634726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed PortlandFire17c3,187$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.652661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Washington Mystics33c3,139$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed PortlandFire48c3,129$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked PortlandFire78c3,077$2,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.52812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-75.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Washington Mystics61c2,977$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked PortlandFire36c2,498$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.6710634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked PortlandFire37c2,253$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.8619031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Washington Mystics72c1,888$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.622382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PortlandFire28c1,825$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.9931043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed PortlandFire2c1,800$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.244915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Washington Mystics39c1,647$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.7912144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed PortlandFire40c1,632$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.216633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed PortlandFire39c1,583$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.695745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc908…2f61backed Washington Mystics67c1,577$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.361050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Washington Mystics69c1,454$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.731154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed PortlandFire48c1,375$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.889938.4%38 W · 61 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc368…a3c4backed PortlandFire58c1,303$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.681030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Washington Mystics29c1,289$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.767520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked PortlandFire44c1,150$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.714020%8 W · 32 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2df3…dc6fbacked Washington Mystics59c1,120$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed PortlandFire31c1,100$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked PortlandFire43c1,033$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.75362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e1…97bcbacked Washington Mystics79c1,014$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Washington Mystics31c966.38$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.6415748.4%76 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed PortlandFire43c929.13$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed PortlandFire57c883.47$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Mystics47c852.77$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.3830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked PortlandFire26c849.58$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8510923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed PortlandFire44c811.88$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.0731847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c9…8803backed PortlandFire20c794.91$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.971822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked PortlandFire74c737.69$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed PortlandFire39c735.48$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-71.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Washington Mystics75c722$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.045020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed PortlandFire31c718.66$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.982065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Washington Mystics65c689.89$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.674353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Washington Mystics53c686.69$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.986437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked PortlandFire54c686.21$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.055642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…0a3fbacked PortlandFire51c685.23$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed PortlandFire40c658.51$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.84829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire57c637$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9855255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03b8…b4aebacked Washington Mystics79c631.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed PortlandFire40c625$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.633253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed PortlandFire29c613.83$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2523245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Washington Mystics66c606.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.069354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Washington Mystics49c599.99$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30612840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Washington Mystics53c582.7$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.861421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe78…edacbacked PortlandFire52c575.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…10b1backed PortlandFire63c569.99$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked PortlandFire12c560$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.16568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed PortlandFire35c547.62$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5536454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Washington Mystics60c535.29$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed PortlandFire39c520.88$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9410538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire56c505.54$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7474942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics51c487.16$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.251,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed PortlandFire44c479.84$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.222152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a56…5e38backed PortlandFire42c472.74$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d8c2backed Washington Mystics55c446.47$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed PortlandFire29c430$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.713024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd90…b028backed PortlandFire31c427.61$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Mystics57c420.71$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9719458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed PortlandFire44c416.41$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5225246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa213…6907backed Washington Mystics29c410.71$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.61560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked PortlandFire12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked PortlandFire40c384$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7514936.9%55 W · 94 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed PortlandFire54c373.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Washington Mystics53c370.66$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked Washington Mystics80c368.95$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.482060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed PortlandFire11c367.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked PortlandFire56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Washington Mystics42c357$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.06650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire29c354.07$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8192248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Washington Mystics42c349.7$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.645547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc92…649dbacked Washington Mystics47c340.44$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Mystics51c340.1$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6514346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Mystics73c330.39$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8650952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Washington Mystics61c329.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed PortlandFire52c318.34$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.175149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Washington Mystics72c314.55$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.352846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed Washington Mystics63c302.39$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.192466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed Washington Mystics5c300$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed PortlandFire28c299.47$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8540550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.