WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d5674c608e00d4c2c9c26b97ddfd83708cbe15d592a6a94d5160781874a5b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Washington Mystics, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 2,000$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.64 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 1,340$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.32 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed PortlandFire | 51c | 1,213$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.54 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed PortlandFire | 48c | 1,125$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.55 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 958$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.76 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed PortlandFire | 48c | 868.27$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed PortlandFire | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 429.1$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.42 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 419$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.31 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 346.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed PortlandFire | 50c | 342.26$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 262.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 241.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed PortlandFire | 50c | 218.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 48c | 213.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked PortlandFire | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 47c | 189.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed PortlandFire | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed PortlandFire | 50c | 146.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…681dbacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Washington Mystics | 19c | 73.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked PortlandFire | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked PortlandFire | 67c | 41.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 36.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 34.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed PortlandFire | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…b5a5backed PortlandFire | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed PortlandFire | 55c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked PortlandFire | 79c | 22.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Washington MysticsWashington Mystics won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 164.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 166.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 167.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.