Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Shnaider
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad974f986b8b1dbb80bf6fecfccd5b51534b10d75854f7d0c7cbadbd231738bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 19c | 1,505$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.63 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…4007backed Sabalenka | 80c | 1,255$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.04 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shnaider | 21c | 539.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…e943backed Shnaider | 7c | 498.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 215 | 24.7%53 W · 162 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Shnaider | 7c | 295.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 36.4%116 W · 203 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Shnaider | 19c | 266.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Shnaider | 19c | 240$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Shnaider | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Shnaider | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…8b93backed Shnaider | 20c | 166.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sabalenka | 78c | 115.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…36f6backed Sabalenka | 79c | 110.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Shnaider | 18c | 101.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Shnaider | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 362 | 61.6%223 W · 139 L | +40.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Shnaider | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shnaider | 16c | 86.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Shnaider | 25c | 79.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Shnaider | 23c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sabalenka | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sabalenka | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…4085backed Sabalenka | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…b82dbacked Sabalenka | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Shnaiderthis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana ShnaiderDiana Shnaider won
- Roland Garros WTA: Completed Match: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana ShnaiderYes won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)Shnaider won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.