Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd5f445e8aed34b9d9abe32f526e976e58317a29850a5241cf545b8b7d22729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cb1…b513backed Yes | 3c | 413$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…c76cbacked No | 73c | 309.85$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 189.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 173.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 99.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 73c | 93.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 60c | 91.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 74.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…2e47backed Yes | 76c | 74.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 60c | 72.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 68.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 44c | 67.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 58.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 52.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 76c | 49.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 44.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…164ebacked No | 68c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 35c | 41.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 37.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes | 78c | 33.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 47c | 33.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 30.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 29.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 47c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.