MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe172835d4f84eb37990863c7b8ec31f70ede93cadf405954d108bfd134e5aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,538 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 0c | 3,719$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 1,552$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.65 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 1,314$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.77 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Toronto Blue Jays | 12c | 625.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 475.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 3c | 456.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 300.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New York Yankees | 59c | 271$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 255$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed New York Yankees | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 6c | 198.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed New York Yankees | 59c | 165$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Yankees | 58c | 163.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed New York Yankees | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 156.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 13c | 120.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 120.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees | 58c | 110.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 61c | 102.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 91.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 13c | 82.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 80.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed New York Yankees | 57c | 41.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.