NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe8d0c11e0197e1d5d42f62e6d75617bcec0df5b4bf876a936b1de03b43f1000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Wizards | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Wizards | 18c | 1,804$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.68 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 10c | 1,452$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 7c | 1,364$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 9c | 1,238$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Wizards | 21c | 1,199$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Wizards | 8c | 1,015$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Wizards | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Wizards | 19c | 999.89$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Wizards | 11c | 903$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Wizards | 19c | 662.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 19c | 529.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…2032backed Wizards | 19c | 517.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f84fbacked Wizards | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…5f8bbacked Wizards | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked Warriors | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Wizards | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…73eebacked Wizards | 19c | 485.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Wizards | 9c | 469$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4965…176fbacked Wizards | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…3015backed Wizards | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked Wizards | 19c | 331.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Warriors | 79c | 278.49$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…91e3backed Wizards | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Wizards | 18c | 199.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Wizards | 17c | 170.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Wizards | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Warriors | 79c | 149.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Wizards | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Wizards | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…3216backed Wizards | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…658dbacked Warriors | 80c | 62.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…a002backed Wizards | 43c | 37.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…f391backed Warriors | 79c | 28.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Warriors | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.