NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe97dd101f804b47974951de4b6aac364ab83affe79b684994481e947e245f12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Toronto Marlies | 35c | 775.58$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 42c | 203.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 194.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 372 | 54.3%202 W · 170 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 30c | 183.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Marlies | 42c | 163.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 38c | 156.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 71c | 154.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 60c | 109.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 28c | 106.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 46c | 95.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Toronto Marlies | 27c | 91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…0d26backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 71.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Marlies | 58c | 63.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 46c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Toronto Marlies | 31c | 54.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…cda3backed Toronto Marlies | 26c | 53.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 38.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Toronto Marlies | 37c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 29.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Toronto Marlies | 39c | 28.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…b271backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 62c | 25.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…3f05backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417c…c0cbbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…cca3backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cd…b654backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc01…7b7abacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd341…9c0bbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…1fe6backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Marlies | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.